BTC/USDT microstructure theses
Every BTC/USDT thesis MarketTrace has published — validated and invalidated, with exact trigger, risk threshold, and projected target parameters. Data refreshes every 5 minutes.
No statistically significant microstructure anomaly detected for BTC/USDT in the current regime. The engine monitors open interest, funding rate, and liquidation stream, and emits a thesis only when percentile thresholds are crossed.
Closed theses ledger
Append-only public ledger of every BTC/USDT thesis that has resolved. Click any row for the full thesis detail including the original trigger, risk, and target levels.
How BTC/USDT theses are generated
MarketTrace is an informational microstructure feed for Bitcoin derivatives. The engine reads Binance USDT-Margined Futures data every five minutes: 5-minute and 1-hour OHLCV klines, open interest, funding rate, and the public liquidation stream. It does not execute trades and does not access private order flow.
Six independent detectors run against that data — breakout retest, contrarian reversal, bullish and bearish divergence, liquidity sweep, short squeeze, and large expected move. Each detector has its own threshold, calibrated on a 30-day rolling percentile window specific to BTC/USDT. When a threshold is crossed, the engine emits a thesis with an entry trigger, risk threshold, projected target, and a time-to-live between 18 and 48 hours depending on the setup.
Every thesis — whether it resolves as validated, invalidated, expired, or superseded — is appended to the public ledger above. Nothing is retroactively edited or removed.
Frequently asked questions
What is the historical validation rate for MarketTrace BTC/USDT theses?+
Based on 14 published BTC/USDT theses, the current validation rate is 50%. Every thesis — validated or invalidated — is logged in the public ledger below with its exact trigger, risk threshold, and projected target.
Which data sources power BTC/USDT thesis emission?+
MarketTrace reads Binance USDT-Margined Futures: 5-minute and 1-hour OHLCV klines, open interest snapshots, funding rate, and the public liquidation stream. Adaptive percentile thresholds calibrated on a 30-day rolling window identify statistically significant regime shifts and emit a thesis with entry trigger, risk threshold, and projected target.
What setups does the engine track for BTC/USDT?+
Six setup families: breakout retest, contrarian reversal, bullish/bearish divergence, liquidity sweep, short squeeze, and large expected move. Each setup has its own thesis TTL (18–48 hours) and independent calibration per asset.
How do I read a thesis status on the ledger?+
VALIDATED means price reached the projected target before the risk threshold or TTL. INVALIDATED means price touched the risk threshold first. EXPIRED means TTL elapsed without either outcome — the last traded price determines the partial result. SUPERSEDED means a stronger same-direction thesis replaced it before resolution and does not count toward the validation rate.
Does MarketTrace provide financial advice?+
No. MarketTrace is an informational data feed. We publish statistical model outputs derived from public exchange data. No output is a recommendation to trade. Past validation rates do not guarantee future results.
Stream the next BTC/USDT thesis
Subscribers see the trigger, risk, and target parameters the moment a thesis is emitted — not after close.
Join MarketTraceInformational data feed only. MarketTrace provides statistical model outputs, not financial guidance. Past validation rates do not guarantee future performance.