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Blog · MarketTrace research

Research, post-mortems, and engineering notes.

How we research microstructure events in crypto perpetuals — order-book dynamics, liquidations, and what the order flow tells us. Long-form only. No signals.

14 posts · running since April 2024 · updated weekly
★ Featured · editor-picked
RESEARCH2026-05-26
May 26, 202612 min readResearch

The classic altseason is dead. Here's what replaced it.

Bitcoin dominance sits at 58–60% in May 2026. ~15% of BTC supply is held in ETFs, corporate treasuries, and governments. 11.9 million tokens launched on pump.fun. The broad altcoin rally that defined 2018 and 2021 is structurally over. Here is the data.

altseasonmacrobtc-dominancememecoins
Read essay →~12 min · coffee recommended
Recent
May 18, 202615 min readEvent-study

Trump went to Beijing. Bitcoin reacted to Wall Street.

During the May 13-15 2026 Trump-Xi summit, BTC sold off twice and bottomed within $100 of the same level ($78,730 and $78,632). The news cycle blamed Xi's Taiwan warning and the summit's anticlimactic close. Order flow tells a different story: both cascades started within 30 minutes of NYSE cash open, alongside SPY, QQQ, gold, and oil.

macroevent-studyliquidations
May 12, 202610 min readPostmortem

Two weeks, six majors, $715M in Binance perp liquidations

Binance perpetual futures liquidations across BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, DOGE over two weeks. Shorts financed 59% of the $715M wrecked. ETH printed the biggest single-minute cascades. DOGE was the only asset where longs paid more than shorts. Cross-exchange feeds: 24h preview.

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