Apr 24, 20267 min readPostmortem
Shorts paid for the rally
Over 25 days BTC ran +15.66% into a local high at $79,382. The median funding rate was −0.19%. Short positions financed the move the entire way up.
fundingmicrostructurepostmortem
Blog · MarketTrace research
Research, post-mortems, and engineering notes.
How we research microstructure events in crypto perpetuals — order-book dynamics, liquidations, and what the order flow tells us. Long-form only. No signals.
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Multi-post collections, in reading order.
Macro event-studies7 parts · 104 min
01Why is crypto going up while the US and Iran trade strikes?10m02The Fed Stopped Signaling. Crypto Leverage Stopped Positioning.12m03The Crypto President Got Paid. The Market Got Sober.13m04The quiet crash: Bitcoin ignored a war, broke on silence, and didn't heal on peace17m05Trump went to Beijing. Bitcoin reacted to Wall Street.15m06Did Bitcoin actually care about US elections? A 7-cycle event study25m07Why Bitcoin rallied on the Hormuz blockade: what changed since 202412m
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Order-flow primer6 parts · 87 min
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Liquidation post-mortems2 parts · 17 min